Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of ArcelorMittal SA with an overweight rating, citing tighter trade curbs in Europe and North America as key catalysts for the steelmaker’s outlook.
The bank assigned a €70 price target to Amsterdam-listed shares, representing roughly 14% upside from the €61.16 close on August 20. For the U.S.-listed ADR, Morgan Stanley set a target of $82, also implying about 14% upside from the August 20 close of $72.20.
Morgan Stanley projected steady steel shipments growth, forecasting 54 million tonnes in 2025, 54.5 million tonnes in 2026, and 57.3 million tonnes in 2027. EBITDA is expected to rise from $6.54 billion in 2025 to $8.12 billion in 2026 and $11.12 billion in 2027, driven by improved demand and trade safeguards.
The benefits of strengthened European trade policies are anticipated to materialize fully in ArcelorMittal’s earnings by 2027–28, according to Morgan Stanley. Additional tailwinds include faster demand recovery in key end markets and potential acceleration of the company’s share buyback program alongside regular dividends. The bank also highlighted ArcelorMittal’s disciplined decarbonization strategy, which it said limits execution and financial risks.
Morgan Stanley warned of downside risks, including weaker Chinese steel demand that could increase global exports and pressure prices, renewed softness in end markets compressing steel spreads, and unplanned investments in new regions.
