Morgan Stanley estimates Apple’s first foldable iPhone could contribute approximately $14 billion in revenue during the December quarter, marking the company’s most significant form-factor innovation since the iPhone X a decade ago. The projection underscores the product’s potential as a major revenue driver amid Apple’s strategic push into flexible displays.
The bank anticipates the device will enter mass production in the second half of 2026, with 7 million to 8 million units built in that period and up to 20 million units over the first full product cycle. Morgan Stanley’s analysis, led by analyst Erik Woodring, suggests the launch will test Apple’s pricing power, with Pro models expected to see price increases exceeding $200 year-over-year due to rising NAND and DRAM costs. The firm characterizes the upcoming September 9 event as a pivotal moment, not only for the product unveiling but also for the leadership transition, as new CEO John Ternus takes center stage for the first time.
Woodring emphasized the historic nature of the event, noting that it will be the first major iPhone form-factor change in nearly 10 years and the first Apple event in 15 years not headlined by Tim Cook. The foldable iPhone, potentially branded as the iPhone Fold (Ultra?), will debut alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, which is expected to feature TSMC’s advanced 2nm process for enhanced on-device AI performance. Analysts also anticipate the base iPhone 18 or iPhone Air 2 models to launch in the spring, further expanding Apple’s product roadmap.
While demand for the foldable device is projected to be robust, supply constraints—particularly in memory components—could limit near-term production volumes. Woodring noted that Apple appears more focused on securing sufficient component supply than on finding buyers, reflecting the high stakes of the launch.
