Morgan Stanley has ranked its European diagnostics coverage by exposure to China’s new lab-fee reform, which the National Healthcare Security Administration published on August 14 and covers over 600 test reagents and analytes.
The broker assumes a 15% net price compression in its base case, below the headline 20%-40% multiplex-discount range, factoring in volume offsets and premium add-ons. Under a 100% pricing drop-through basis, estimated FY27 EBIT exposure varies significantly across the sector: bioMérieux leads at 5%, followed by DiaSorin at 2%, with Siemens Healthineers and Qiagen each at 1%.
bioMérieux’s China sales, roughly 5% of group revenue, are concentrated in microbiology and immunoassay testing. The company holds a dominant share in China’s microbiology segment, though weaker local dynamics and headwinds in its China PCT franchise in immunoassay testing may pressure margins. DiaSorin, with about 3% of sales from China—all within immunodiagnostics—faces a guided €5 million impact from China’s volume-based procurement in 2026. The company has already closed its Shanghai manufacturing site in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2025 and benefits from premium add-ons such as antibody-avidity and mass-spectrometry testing.
Siemens Healthineers, despite deriving the highest share of diagnostics sales from China at about 7%, shows only a 1% EBIT impact due to low segment margins excluding a tariff refund in the third fiscal quarter of 2026. Risks include visible weakness in China’s volume-based procurement and an upcoming diagnostics carve-out within 12-24 months. Qiagen, with roughly 4% of sales from China split between life sciences and diagnostics, has the lowest exposure at 1% EBIT. Its diagnostics portfolio excludes QIAStat-Dx and QuantiFERON, and the company benefits from the richest set of premium molecular add-ons, including quantitative, RNA, high-sensitivity, and whole-genome sequencing tests, which may cushion pricing pressure.
