Macquarie Group has downgraded its revenue forecasts for Australia’s major banks, citing weaker-than-expected loan growth and sustained pressure on net interest margins.
The adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook for the sector, with Macquarie reducing its estimates for revenue growth across key lenders. The downgrade follows a period of rising funding costs and softer demand for credit, which have weighed on profitability.
Analysts at Macquarie noted that while household savings remain elevated, spending trends have softened, limiting loan demand. Additionally, the competitive landscape for deposits has intensified, further compressing net interest margins. The revisions apply to the country’s largest banks, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac, ANZ and National Australia Bank.
The move comes as Australia’s banking sector faces broader economic headwinds, including high household debt levels and a slowing housing market. Macquarie’s updated forecasts underscore concerns over the sustainability of revenue growth in the near term, despite expectations of a gradual recovery in credit demand.
The bank’s analysts did not provide specific numerical adjustments to their revenue estimates but emphasized that the downgrade was driven by structural challenges rather than temporary volatility. The sector remains under scrutiny as investors assess the impact of higher interest rates on consumer and business borrowing behavior.
