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Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows to 1 point in latest poll

A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a razor-thin 42%-41% advantage over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of October’s runoff election.

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Sophie Laurent · FX & Rates Desk · 2 Sept 2026 · 14:19 · 1 min read
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Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows to 1 point in latest poll

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s polling lead over Flavio Bolsonaro has narrowed to a single percentage point in the latest survey, released Thursday by polling firm Quaest and commissioned by broadcaster Globo.

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The second-round simulation places Lula at 42% support versus 41% for Bolsonaro, according to the poll conducted on September 2. This marks a two-point decline in Lula’s margin from the previous Quaest survey published on August 14, when the president led 43% to 40%.

The data comes as Brazil approaches the October runoff election, with the outcome hinging on tight voter preferences. The latest figures reflect a volatile political landscape, with both candidates maintaining competitive support levels in the final stretch of the campaign.

This article was produced with AI assistance and edited by a Finance Review Daily journalist.
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Written by
Sophie Laurent
FX & Rates Desk

Sophie covers currency markets and central bank policy across Europe, with a focus on how rate decisions ripple through FX pairs. She has been tracking the ECB's policy path since the start of the current easing cycle.

More from Sophie Laurent →
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