Kaiser Aluminum Corporation’s stock rose 4.4% on Monday after UBS upgraded the company to Buy from Neutral, citing improving fundamentals and operational momentum.
The upgrade follows a 19% decline in the company’s shares since August, driven by concerns over U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement renegotiations, a CEO transition, and uncertainty around scrap spread sustainability. UBS analyst Alex Stansbury raised the price target to $184 from $179, emphasizing Kaiser Aluminum’s second-quarter fiscal 2026 EBITDA growth of approximately $41 million, a 60% year-over-year increase.
UBS projects over 50% EBITDA growth for fiscal 2026, with the firm estimating a 66% increase. The stock’s valuation has de-rated to roughly 7.5x UBS’ estimated EV/EBITDA, below the historical average of 8.6x. Stansbury noted that the recent selloff presents an attractive entry point, as underlying fundamentals strengthen despite lingering scrap-related tailwinds.
The analyst highlighted ongoing benefits from investments at the Warrick and Trentwood facilities, alongside the end of aerospace destocking as build rates accelerate. UBS expects these factors to support continued earnings growth, reinforcing the upgrade to Buy.
