Intuit Inc. shares fell 11% in extended trading on Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates but provided fiscal 2027 guidance that lagged Wall Street forecasts.
The maker of TurboTax and QuickBooks posted adjusted earnings per share of $4.03, exceeding the $3.54 consensus estimate by 13.8%, while revenue totaled $4.40 billion, topping expectations by $120 million. Operating margin expanded to 33.3%, reflecting strong execution in its core businesses.
For fiscal 2027, Intuit guided revenue growth of 9-10%, below the 12% consensus and well below its 14% growth in fiscal 2026. Earnings per share are expected in a range of $22.88 to $23.12, also below the $27.30 consensus. Analysts noted particular softness in TurboTax, where growth is projected at just 2-3% in FY27, down from roughly 7% in FY26 and far below the 6.8% consensus.
Intuit’s strategic initiatives—dubbed its "Big Bets"—continued to expand, growing 34% year-over-year and now accounting for 30% of total revenue. The segment includes mid-market solutions, assisted tax services, and money management tools.
The guidance shortfall prompted broad analyst downgrades. JPMorgan cut Intuit to Neutral from Buy, lowering its price target to $331 from $605, citing "disruption risks" extending beyond TurboTax to QuickBooks. Bank of America similarly downgraded to Neutral, trimming its target to $360 from $400, and warned that TurboTax is losing share to lower-cost AI alternatives. TD Cowen maintained its Hold rating with a $328 target, expecting shares to remain range-bound until at least the third quarter.
Not all analysts were bearish. Mizuho reiterated its Outperform rating with a $430 target, arguing that FY27 profitability guidance exceeded estimates. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating but trimmed its target to $500 from $550, calling the guidance "conservative." BMO Capital and Oppenheimer also maintained Outperform ratings, with targets of $412 and $380, respectively. Overall, the consensus remains tilted positive, with 24 Buy ratings, 9 Hold, and 2 Sell.
Intuit’s valuation metrics remain rich but have compressed. The stock trades at 21.4x trailing earnings and 13.1x forward earnings, with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 1.05. Free cash flow yield stands at 8.8%, while gross margin remains robust at 81% and net margin at 21.3%. A fair-value estimate of $557.71 implies 64.6% upside from current levels.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. Monthly charts show a Strong Sell signal, while weekly and daily charts remain more constructive. Key support levels are identified at $317, $302, and $271, with resistance at $342, $357, and $382.
