Options on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) are pricing in smaller future swings than the fund experienced during Bitcoin's recent rebound, according to Saxo Bank.
IBIT's implied volatility stood at 37.4% versus realized volatility of 45.5% over the 20 trading sessions through Tuesday, Saxo investment and options strategist Koen Hoorelbeke wrote Thursday. Based on Wednesday's data, Hoorelbeke placed IBIT's implied volatility rank at 11.9, positioning it near the bottom of its 12-month range.
"In our view the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than the recent past produced," Hoorelbeke wrote. Implied volatility reflects expectations embedded in options prices, while realized volatility measures actual past movement.
Hoorelbeke identified technical resistance around $87,000, where Bitcoin's advance stalled on Sept. 21, and support between $76,000 and $77,000. Bitcoin traded at $84,751 at time of writing, up 1.6% in the preceding 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
The wider flow picture showed some cooling: related data indicated Bitcoin ETF inflows had slowed to $191 million, tempering what had been a six-day inflow streak totaling $2.8 billion.
