China's main corn, soybean and cotton regions have faced prolonged heat and heavy rainfall since mid-July, threatening crop quality and output and increasing the likelihood of higher imports of feed grains and cotton.
In Xinjiang, the country's top cotton-producing region with over 90% of national output, sustained high temperatures and limited rainfall are expected to reduce yields. The northwest region has also become a significant corn-growing area. In Jilin and Liaoning, major corn and soybean producers, temperatures at 50 weather stations matched or exceeded historical records from mid-July through late August.
Heilongjiang, China's largest corn and soybean producer, has been hit by repeated heavy rains and historic floods since mid-July, according to state broadcaster CCTV. Excessive rainfall lowered soil temperatures and reduced sunlight, affecting soybean quality and protein content. Henan, a key summer corn and soybean producer in the North China Plain, experienced an extreme heatwave in July followed by heavy rains from the remnants of Typhoon Dolphin in mid-August.
China's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the 2026/27 corn planting area at 45.13 million hectares, a 0.4% increase year-over-year. Corn imports from January to July totaled 1.36 million tons, up 61.3% from a year earlier. Sorghum imports rose 86.2% and barley imports grew 53.4% over the same period. China imported 2.98 million tons of U.S. sorghum in the first seven months of 2026, nearly four times its total purchases for all of 2025, while U.S. corn purchases remained at zero.
Soybean planted area is expected to decline 0.6% to 10.19 million hectares as farmers shift to more profitable corn. Cotton imports reached 1.02 million tons in the first seven months of 2026, nearly matching total imports for all of 2025. U.S. cotton accounted for 114,494 tons, equaling China's full-year 2025 purchases but representing just 13% of 2024 imports.
China committed to buying $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural products through 2028 under a trade war truce, excluding soybeans, according to the White House. Large-scale purchases of non-soybean products expected after a leadership meeting in May have not yet materialized.
Agricultural researcher Liu Jinlu at Guoyuan Futures said prolonged heat during China's corn pollination phase in the North China Plain could reduce grain formation, while floods pose risks to low-lying fields in the northeast. Darin Friedrichs, cofounder of Sitonia Consulting, noted that corn and sorghum have historically been China's highest-value dollar exports from the U.S., alongside soybeans.
