Global sugar deficit estimates for the 2026/27 crop year have been reduced to 3.24 million metric tons from a prior forecast of 3.34 million metric tons, according to analysis firm Green Pool.
The downward revision follows an upward adjustment in India’s sugar production outlook to 30 million metric tons, up from 29.7 million metric tons previously. Russia’s forecast was also raised to 6.45 million metric tons, compared with 6.35 million metric tons. These gains partially offset declines elsewhere, including a 330,000-ton reduction in the European Union’s production estimate to 13 million metric tons.
India’s output increase is attributed to expanded planted area and favorable beet trials in Russia, while domestic policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices—such as stock limits and tax-free imports—are expected to limit diversion of sucrose to ethanol production. The European Union and the United Kingdom face continued pressure from severe drought conditions, which have constrained output prospects despite the broader upward revisions in other regions.
Green Pool noted that the global production outlook remains broadly stable, with the revised deficit figure reflecting a tighter balance between supply and demand for the 2026/27 season.
