Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term forecast for the humanoid robotics market, projecting unit sales of 6.48 million by 2035, up from a prior estimate of 1.38 million. The investment bank now values the market at $138 billion, equivalent to approximately ¥22 trillion, a sharp increase from its previous projection of around ¥6 trillion.
Advances in physical artificial intelligence are accelerating development cycles, pushing companies toward larger-scale prototypes and commercial deployment. The automotive industry is expected to lead early adoption due to its established capabilities in high-volume manufacturing of complex industrial products. Goldman Sachs assessed global automakers based on three criteria: declared intent to enter the humanoid robotics space, stagnation in core business lines, and financial and operational capacity to support such ventures.
Among active participants, Tesla and Hyundai are highlighted for their engagement in humanoid robotics. Japanese automakers Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi Motors are noted as relatively well-positioned to capitalize on the trend. Toyota, in particular, is cited for possessing four key advantages: labor demand pressures, urgency driven by battery electric vehicle supply chain dynamics, existing mass-production hardware and software expertise, and financially committed management.
The bank estimates Toyota could produce between 190,000 and 540,000 humanoid robot units annually by 2035, representing a global market share of roughly 3% to 8%. This potential production volume could contribute an estimated 2% to 6% to Goldman Sachs' gross profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2027.
Goldman Sachs also identified potential stock beneficiaries, including Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi Motors, JTEKT, Aisin, MinebeaMitsumi, Renesas, Harmonic Drive, and NEC/Fujitsu (via Noetra). The firm initiated coverage of JTEKT with a Buy rating.
