Spot gold was trading at $4,481.29 per troy ounce on Thursday, down 0.81% for the session, after failing to sustain gains above the $4,493–$4,533 weekly resistance band. The metal had surged more than 3% on Wednesday to $4,480, its strongest close since early June, following a sharp drop in long-dated Treasury yields triggered by a U.S. Treasury announcement.
The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.236%, up from Wednesday’s close of 5.196% and just 9.4 basis points below the 19-year high of 5.33% set on Tuesday. The 10-year yield rose to 4.696%, reversing Wednesday’s decline from 4.68% to 4.637%. The dollar also strengthened modestly after hitting a three-month low earlier in the week. The immediate catalyst for Wednesday’s gold rally was a Treasury decision to double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated securities, effective September 9 through November 4. The per-operation ceiling increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, expanding the theoretical maximum buyback capacity from $69 billion to $83 billion over the period.
The buyback expansion, while signaling policy concern over elevated long-end yields, did not alter the underlying supply dynamics of the Treasury market. Total outstanding U.S. public debt surpassed $40 trillion this week, with the July federal deficit reaching $432.3 billion—the largest monthly shortfall since March 2021. Interest costs on the debt have totaled approximately $1.2 trillion in 2024 alone. Roughly 40% of outstanding Treasury securities are illiquid, low-coupon bonds issued before the 2022 tightening cycle, which continue to pressure the long end of the curve.
Gold’s technical posture remains defined by a narrow range. The metal is up 9.90% over the past month and 34.19% year-over-year, but remains 20.0% below its January 29 record high of $5,602.23. The 52-week range spans $3,311.46 to $5,595.46, placing current price levels in the upper-middle of that band. The critical resistance zone remains the $4,510–$4,515 area, where the 200-day simple moving average converges with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline. A weekly close above $4,533 would open a path toward the $4,855–$4,894 supply shelf, while failure to clear $4,515 risks trapping the metal back within its six-week summer range.
Support levels are well-defined, with the 50-day moving average at $4,386.29 serving as the first line of defense. Below that, the $4,319 level—marking the 2026 yearly open and the 52-week moving average—has flipped from resistance to support following August’s breakout. Further down, the $4,002–$4,017 cluster and $3,887 represent key downside risk zones.
Momentum indicators suggest the metal is approaching overbought territory without having fully reached it. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65.17, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains constructive on the daily chart. The composite signal registers a Strong Buy across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes but flips to Strong Sell on the hourly chart, reflecting a trend intact with short-term exhaustion. The five-day moving average at $4,348.08 sits below spot, providing near-term technical support.
Geopolitical risks remain a potential tailwind for gold, with U.S. sanctions targeting Iran and penalties threatened for nations aiding Tehran. September gold futures rose 2.38% to $86.40, while palladium futures pushed past $94. However, the immediate price action suggests that macro drivers—particularly Treasury yields and the dollar—are dominating near-term sentiment over geopolitical factors.
