Gold futures settled at $4,526.20 on Tuesday, up $111.60 (2.53%) from Wednesday's $4,414.60 close, and spot prices moved back above $4,450 after touching a three‑week low of $4,282.67. The rally marked a second consecutive session of recovery following a volatile Wednesday in which XAU/USD opened at $4,328.36, fell to $4,282.67, rebounded to $4,397.37 and closed near $4,389.22.
According to the Investing.com analysis, the primary driver was not safe‑haven demand but the front end of the Treasury curve. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that underlying inflation appears better than core measures suggest and that he would favor holding rates steady in September if the upcoming August CPI shows continued progress toward the 2% target. CME FedWatch odds for a September 25‑basis‑point hike fell to 48% from nearly 70% the day before, and the 10‑year Treasury yield retreated to 4.75% after briefly touching 4.818% on Wednesday.
The analysis argues that gold, a non‑yielding asset, is now pricing the expected policy rate more than geopolitical risk. Every basis point removed from the expected rate lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, and each point added raises it. The analysts identify $4,470 in spot terms as the decisive level: below it, the move is a corrective bounce within a damaged structure; above it, the metal could test the August high near $4,700.
The piece also highlights the impact of recent Iran‑related tensions. Brent crude rose above $95 per barrel, up 9% over three sessions, yet gold fell 3.25% on the week, hitting the three‑week low and slipping below its 200‑day moving average, with the RSI under 50 and MACD at –30.53. The analysis links the oil surge to higher inflation expectations, higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and increased odds of a Fed rate hike, all of which are negative for gold.
If August CPI prints hotter than expected, the analysis warns the metal could be hit twice: first by the inflation figure pushing hike odds higher, and second by the dollar strengthening in response. The calendar is tight, with August non‑farm payrolls due Friday, CPI around September 10, and the Fed meeting on September 16.
Technically, the metal reclaimed $4,400 during the Asian session, then moved into a $4,440‑$4,460 supply zone that has capped prior attempts. Early dealing saw $4,494.70, and the price extended to $4,526.20 as U.S. equities opened and FedWatch repricing settled.
The analysis concludes that position sizing matters more than direction, given the metal's sensitivity to short‑term rate expectations and the binary nature of the upcoming CPI and payroll data.
