Global crude steel production declined 0.3% year-over-year in July, according to Morgan Stanley, as a sharp contraction in China offset growth across other major producers.
China’s output fell 3.6% year-over-year in July, extending a 3.1% decline in the first seven months of 2025. A month-to-date survey by the China Iron and Steel Association showed Chinese mill output down 4.9% year-over-year in August. Exports from China remain elevated at an annualized pace of roughly 116 million tons as of July.
Outside China, crude steel production rose 3.4% year-over-year in July and 2.4% in the year-to-date period. India led regional gains with output up 1.9% year-over-year and 6.1% year-to-date, while the United States expanded 4.4% and 6.0%, respectively. Turkey and South Korea also posted strong gains of 7.0% and 6.4% year-over-year.
Europe’s 27-nation bloc saw a 3.8% year-over-year increase in July, lifting year-to-date growth to 0.4%. Germany led with 3.0% year-over-year growth and 8.1% year-to-date, while Italy rose 4.2% and 3.6%. Finland and Sweden recorded double-digit gains of 13.0% and 10.1%, respectively. France rebounded 12.5% year-over-year but remained 1.3% lower year-to-date. Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and the UK continued to contract, with declines ranging from 5.3% to 18.0% in the year-to-date period.
Hot-rolled coil spreads in the EU widened to $464 per ton, above the long-run average of about $320 per ton.
Morgan Stanley attributed the divergence to structural shifts in China’s steel sector and uneven demand recovery across regions.
