Global crude steel production fell 0.3% year-over-year in July, extending a 0.6% decline in the year-to-date, according to data cited by Morgan Stanley.
The decline was driven by a sharp contraction in China, where output dropped 3.6% year-over-year in July and 3.1% in the first seven months of the year. A month-to-date survey by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) for August indicated a further 4.9% year-over-year contraction in Chinese mill output. Chinese steel exports are running at an annualized pace of roughly 116 million tons as of July.
Output outside China rose 3.4% year-over-year in July and 2.4% year-to-date, partially offsetting the weakness in China. India’s production increased 1.9% year-over-year and 6.1% year-to-date, while the United States saw gains of 4.4% and 6.0% respectively. Turkey’s output expanded 7.0% year-over-year and 7.9% year-to-date, and South Korea posted increases of 6.4% and 2.7%. Russia rebounded 3.3% year-over-year but remained 6.1% lower year-to-date. Japan and Brazil posted minimal growth of 0.4% and 0.1% respectively.
In Europe, EU27 crude steel output rose 3.8% year-over-year in July, though year-to-date growth was flat at 0.4%. Including the UK, output increased 3.5% year-over-year in July, with no change year-to-date. Germany led the improvement with 3.0% year-over-year growth and 8.1% year-to-date growth. Italy’s output rose 4.2% year-over-year and 3.6% year-to-date, while Finland and Sweden recorded double-digit increases of 13.0% and 10.1% respectively. Austria’s output climbed 3.3% year-over-year.
France rebounded 12.5% year-over-year in July but remained 1.3% lower year-to-date. Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and the UK continued to contract year-to-date, with declines of 13.8%, 5.3%, 6.1%, and 18.0% respectively. EU hot-rolled coil spreads have widened to $464 per ton, compared with a long-run average of about $320 per ton.
