European natural gas is poised to end a five-week winning streak — the longest stretch of weekly gains in four years — after French energy-sector strike disruption subsided and supply concerns eased.
The Dutch front-month TTF contract rose 2% on Friday to trade around 78.50 euros per megawatt-hour, recovering from an over-one-week low set earlier in the week. Despite the daily gain, TTF was on track for a weekly decline of about 1.8%. The Great Britain NBP wholesale gas contract similarly advanced 2% on the session to near 195.00 pence per therm, but was heading for a 1.9% weekly loss.
The weekly pullback was primarily driven by the conclusion of a labor strike across France's energy sector. The disruption had constrained regasification and sendout capacity at the Dunkirk LNG terminal — France's largest import facility — and cut export flows to Belgian and German grids before operations normalized mid-week.
Friday's intraday rebound, however, reflected lingering geopolitical anxieties. The ongoing seven-month Iran war, attacks on Saudi oil pipeline infrastructure, and Houthi strikes in the Red Sea have restricted LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing shippers onto costlier alternate routes.
Europe also faces a structural inventory crunch. Storage caverns are sitting at roughly 68.5% capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data, leaving utilities more vulnerable to cold snaps heading into autumn than they were at this point last year.
On the macro side, the European Central Bank cited natural gas and electricity prices as the primary catalyst pushing Eurozone inflation above 3%. Separately, the Bank of England held its key rate at 3.75% on Thursday and warned of a potential rate hike to 4% in November.
