European and British wholesale natural gas futures climbed 1.6% each Thursday, rebounding from their lowest levels in nearly three weeks as prospects for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal dimmed.
The Dutch front-month TTF contract settled at 74.50 euros per megawatt-hour, while Great Britain’s NBP wholesale gas contract rose to 185.85 pence per therm. Both benchmarks had fallen sharply earlier in the week on optimism that diplomatic progress could de-escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf.
The mood shifted after U.S. President Donald Trump used his address to the United Nations General Assembly to label Iran a regional “bully,” and warned that the Islamic Republic faced the possibility of “annihilation” if hostilities intensified. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a warning that Tehran was prepared to deliver “crushing” counter-strikes and vowed never to surrender under any naval blockade.
The stalemate in peace talks overrode earlier bullish sentiment for lower gas prices, which had been buoyed by expectations of a resolution that would ease supply disruption fears in the Middle East.
Underground gas storage across the European Union stands at 70% of capacity, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Current fill levels remain approximately 12 percentage points below year-on-year readings for the same period, leaving the region with less cushion heading into the winter demand season.
Traders are now reassessing the risk premium embedded in European gas prices as geopolitical tensions persist without a clear path toward de-escalation.
