EUR/USD's near‑term recovery is contingent on two factors, analysts say: the forthcoming U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data and the technical resistance level at 1.1680.
The pair has hovered around the low‑1.1650 area after a recent pullback that saw the euro lose ground against the dollar amid mixed economic signals from both sides of the Atlantic.
U.S. CPI figures, due later this week, are expected to shape dollar momentum. A reading that aligns with or falls below market forecasts could ease pressure on the greenback, while a higher‑than‑expected number may reinforce dollar strength and keep the euro in check.
From a chartist perspective, 1.1680 marks a key resistance zone that has halted previous rally attempts. The level has acted as a ceiling in recent sessions, prompting traders to watch for a decisive break.
If CPI data suggest easing inflation, the dollar could weaken, giving the euro a chance to breach the 1.1680 barrier and resume its upward trajectory. Conversely, a surprise inflation uptick may sustain dollar demand, capping the pair below the resistance line.
Analysts stress that the interplay between macro data and technical thresholds will dictate whether the euro can mount a sustainable recovery or remain constrained.
Market participants are likely to monitor price action around 1.1680 closely; a clear break above could trigger bullish positioning, while failure to do so may invite further downside pressure.
