Equifax Inc. (EFX) highlighted its strategy to drive growth beyond the current mortgage market downturn, emphasizing its expansion into credit data analytics, artificial intelligence, and international markets during a September 2026 Barclays conference. With U.S. mortgage activity at just 50% of historic levels and rates hovering near 7%, the company’s leadership underscored its ability to capitalize on opportunities in a flattish market through operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions.
The company’s revenue from tri-merge credit files—representing about 30% of its U.S. Information Solutions segment—accounts for roughly $900 million out of $6.7 billion in total mortgage revenue. While mortgage transactions remain subdued, Equifax expects incremental revenue gains of over $1 billion and $700 million in margins as the market recovers. The adoption of VantageScore, priced at $1 through 2027—a 45% cost reduction versus FICO’s $10—has already expanded from 30 lenders to all agencies, driving estimated industry-wide savings of over $1 billion. Full VantageScore adoption for agency mortgages was finalized in mid-2026, following FHFA’s 2025 directive to allow lender score flexibility.
Equifax’s cloud transformation, costing $3 billion, is nearing completion, while share buybacks totaled $1.4 billion over the past year, including $500 million in Q4 2025. The company maintains a 56-year dividend track record, with a current yield of 1.33% and a 12% dividend growth rate over the prior year. Long-term growth targets include 7% to 10% revenue growth, with segment-specific targets of 6% to 8% for U.S. Information Solutions and 7% to 9% for international operations. Government business is expected to return to growth in the second half of 2026, with a $800 million vertical and a $5 billion total addressable market.
In workforce solutions, Equifax projects low-double-digit growth, leveraging AI to drive $150 million in productivity gains (up from $75 million), with first-half 2026 operating leverage at 110 basis points. The company also acquired Círculo de Crédito for $740 million, a Mexican credit bureau with revenue growth above 20% and mid-40% EBITDA margins. Meanwhile, its Talent vertical saw 10% Q2 growth, with a $5 billion total addressable market and 70 million annual U.S. job changes. The company’s background screening market size stands at $5 billion, and its TWN data platform covers 170 million income-producing Americans, including 60 million dual-earners.
Equifax’s leadership emphasized confidence in its ability to deliver 7% to 10% revenue growth even in a flattish mortgage market, citing operational leverage and strategic expansion. With government contracts totaling $300 million and new business pipelines doubling year over year, the company positions itself to benefit from broader economic trends, including improper payments in the social services sector (nearly $200 billion annually) and rising demand for credit data in international markets.
