Citi analysts have upgraded their outlook for the global memory chip market following a series of meetings with suppliers and supply chain managers across South Korea's semiconductor sector. The firm's assessment, based on its recent Tech Tour, indicates a more robust trajectory than previously anticipated, driven by structural shifts in production and demand.
Memory prices have firmed, with the spot price for 64GB DDR5 modules rising to $3,600 from $3,000, exceeding market expectations. This upward adjustment reflects tightening supply conditions and sustained demand for high-performance memory components. Analysts also noted a strategic pivot among NAND producers, who are reallocating capacity toward embedded solid-state drives (eSSD) to stabilize pricing amid weaker consumer-grade NAND and eMMC segments.
The migration toward advanced memory technologies is accelerating, with suppliers adopting multi-patterning techniques, higher NAND stacking levels and increased extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography usage. These developments require more sophisticated deposition processes and advanced anti-reflective coating (ARC) equipment, according to TES, a key supplier in the memory equipment ecosystem.
High-bandwidth memory (HBM) testing is also evolving, with post-singulation testing gaining prominence due to the complexity of base dies. TechWing, a provider of memory test solutions, reported that an end client has requested HBM3E and HBM4 base die testing, a move expected to drive adoption of the company's Cube Prober. The shift toward customized HBM and 3D packaging solutions is anticipated to accelerate demand for die-level test handlers.
Simmtech, a memory module manufacturer, highlighted growing interest in system-on-chip advanced memory modules (SoCAMM2), with multiple clients evaluating the technology. The company noted that SoCAMM2 modules command a significant price premium over traditional RDIMM modules due to their higher layer counts and finer pad requirements. Simmtech projects a compound annual growth rate of over 25% for the segment over the next five years, contingent on additional U.S. central processing unit (CPU) clients and a potential China-based client adopting the technology.
Citi's upgraded outlook aligns with broader industry trends, including sustained demand for high-performance memory in data centers, artificial intelligence applications and advanced computing systems.
