CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) saw its stock rating downgraded to Hold from Buy by Freedom Broker on Monday, with the firm cutting its price target to $133 from $147. The new target implies roughly 4.5% upside plus a 2% dividend yield. The downgrade reflects nitrogen price normalization to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter, which Freedom Broker cited as a key factor.
The firm maintained a Neutral rating on CF Industries while raising its price target to $123 from $115, according to UBS. Analysts at Wolfe Research noted improving sentiment in the agricultural sector, supported by rising commodity prices in U.S. and Brazil channel checks.
CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.18 billion in the first half, up from $1.41 billion a year earlier, with earnings per share of $8.71. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.19 billion, excluding $220 million in one-time items, and missed consensus estimates near $1.4 billion due to higher costs rather than pricing. Second-quarter 2026 earnings were $4.73 per share on revenue of $2.22 billion, falling short of Wall Street expectations.
The company generated $1.82 billion in trailing free cash flow and operated at 98% utilization of available capacity. CF Industries also raised its dividend by 20% and has maintained payments for 22 consecutive years. Its stock has risen about 47% to reach the upper end of its 52-week range.
CF Industries broke ground on its Blue Point project in August, while the broader nitrogen market remains tight despite price normalization. UBS noted that current price levels suggest two more quarters of excess earnings, indicating a balanced risk-reward profile.
