Global oil prices edged lower on Friday, leaving benchmark futures on track for weekly declines as geopolitical risks in the Middle East failed to offset concerns over supply flows through key shipping chokepoints.
Brent crude futures fell 52 cents, or 0.6%, to $89.18 per barrel by 1419 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.01, or 1.2%, to $82.52 per barrel. The declines left Brent poised for a weekly loss of approximately 5.5% and WTI set for a 5.2% weekly decline.
Analysts cited reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as a contributing factor to the softening prices. Data showed just seven commodity vessels transiting the strait on Thursday, down from 17 the previous day and below the 10-day average of 15. The strait, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply typically passes, has seen export volumes constrained by ongoing tensions.
Goldman Sachs estimated that recent Gulf oil exports totaled 15 million to 16 million barrels per day (bpd), a figure 7 million to 8 million bpd below pre-war levels but still 5 million to 6 million bpd above the lows recorded in March. The bank noted that increased flows through the newly established Iran-Oman shipping corridor and U.S. claims of mine clearance efforts in the region had supported supply availability.
Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said the market had been surprised by the additional flow via the Iran-Oman corridor and U.S. mine clearance assertions. "The weekly decline would likely be due to the available volume that is able to exit the Strait and the pace of ramp-up in flows," Shah said. "That would allow Asian refiners to pull and consume."
PVM Oil Futures analyst John Evans highlighted broader uncertainties tied to the conflict, stating that the trajectory of OPEC decisions, China’s demand trends, and global refinery operations remained closely linked to the volatile geopolitical landscape. "The ramifications on who will be in or out of OPEC, how China's demand is affected, whether the refinery issues of the globe can now be solved are hitched firmly to this bumpy wagon of war," Evans said.
The U.S. has imposed what it describes as the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, while Tehran has dismissed the measures as an "inhumane and hostile act" that have lost their effectiveness. Earlier this week, Tehran agreed to draft a list of conditions to restore normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz after a Qatari emissary urged respect for freedom of navigation.
Elsewhere, U.S. officials are negotiating a potential deal to secure long-term access to a portion of Venezuela’s crude reserves, a move that could reduce import costs. Venezuela is reportedly considering withdrawing from OPEC as part of the discussions.
Escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine added to market jitters after Moscow warned it could target British military assets inside and outside Ukraine in response to Kyiv’s use of British-supplied long-range cruise missiles in strikes on Russian territory. Ukraine’s military conducted an overnight attack on a Russian oil refinery in the Yaroslavl region.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not attack a NATO country, downplaying reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe had warned Russian officials against such an action this week.
