Bond volatility spikes as Bitcoin and equities remain resilient

U.S. Treasury bond volatility has reached its highest level since March, driven by rising energy prices and inflation concerns, as measured by the MOVE index, which climbed to 104 from around 80 on Tuesday. This spike contrasts sharply with Bitcoin and U.S. equities, where implied volatility remains near its yearly lows. The 20-day correlation between bond volatility (MOVE) and the S&P 500’s VIX has turned negative for the first time since April 2024, signaling that rising Treasury risk premiums have not yet translated into broader market turbulence. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s implied volatility index (BVIV) remains subdued at around 37, close to its year-to-date low of 35, reflecting little demand for hedging against price swings in the cryptocurrency market.