Estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer values can diverge by as much as sixfold depending on how transactions are measured, according to a paper published by researchers at the Bank for International Settlements.
The discrepancy centers on how onchain transfer values—not exchange trading volume—are calculated. A major source of variation is how "change" outputs are handled: when users spend Bitcoin, unspent funds are typically sent back to the sender's own address. Whether those change outputs are counted as separate transfers or excluded entirely can shift reported figures substantially.
"Metrics such as transaction volumes, market capitalisation and total value locked often suggest a degree of accuracy that is not supported by the nature of the underlying data," the researchers wrote.
The study also examined Bitcoin's market capitalization, finding that the conventional measure—based on current prices—has sometimes been up to four times higher than "realized capitalization," which values each coin at the price when it last moved on-chain.
The analysis drew on 100 billion blockchain records across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron, and found that similar measurement problems extend throughout the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Ethereum presented its own complications. Of approximately 67.5 million active smart contracts examined, roughly 54 million could not be categorized using the classifications applied in the study.
Stablecoin activity added further complexity. The same asset can serve different purposes across blockchains: USDT on Ethereum was closely linked to decentralized finance activity, while USDT on Tron was associated more with payments and store-of-value uses. The divergence was particularly stark in smart contract holdings—the share of USDT held by contracts on Ethereum exceeded 20% in 2022, compared with around 1% on Tron. Aggregating USDT activity across chains, the researchers said, can conflate distinct types of economic behavior and obscure how stablecoins are actually used.
Visa already distinguishes between raw blockchain activity and adjusted figures meant to reflect genuine economic activity. Its Onchain Analytics dashboard, powered by Allium Labs data, shows both total and adjusted stablecoin transaction volumes. Over the past 30 days tracked, total stablecoin volume across monitored networks stood at $6.4 trillion, compared with an adjusted figure of $313.1 billion. Visa said its adjustments remove distortions from high-frequency trading, bots, bridge routing and internal exchange operations.
The BIS researchers concluded that onchain indicators should be treated as "noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity."
