Hershey’s potential acquisition of Mondelez is a long-term strategic option, according to Bernstein, which modeled scenarios where the U.S. confectioner could acquire the global snacks giant at a 15% premium.
Under a 3x net-debt-to-EBITDA leverage scenario, Hershey’s earnings per share would be diluted by about 5% in the first year, Bernstein estimates. However, the deal could become nearly 11% accretive if cost synergies equivalent to 8.5% of Hershey’s sales are realized within two to three years. An aggressive 4x leverage scenario would limit initial dilution to less than 2%, with potential accretion of nearly 16% after achieving the same synergy targets.
The investment bank highlighted Hershey’s recent product collaborations with Mondelez—joint launches of Reese’s-Oreo and Oreo-Reese’s variants in late 2025—as among the most successful new product rollouts for Hershey. Bernstein noted Mondelez’s strong position in China, where it generates estimated sales of around $2 billion, while Hershey has struggled to establish a foothold. In Europe, Hershey has gained traction with Reese’s peanut butter cups in the UK and other markets, though its regional presence remains limited.
Governance challenges could complicate any potential transaction. The Hershey Trust, which controls approximately 79% of Hershey’s voting rights through Class B shares, would see its voting stake decline to about 51% under the 3x leverage scenario. Its economic ownership would fall to roughly 9.8% of total shares, potentially triggering clauses requiring the Trust to increase its equity stake to maintain control.
Bernstein does not expect Hershey to pursue an acquisition in the short term, viewing international partnerships such as licensing or joint ventures in China, the UK, and Western Europe as more immediate priorities. Neither company has publicly commented on a potential deal.
