Bernstein, a Wall Street research firm, projects Bitcoin to rebound from its recent downturn and retest its 2025 high of $125,000 by late 2026. The firm outlined its outlook in a research note published Wednesday, noting a 28% gain over the prior 10 days following a roughly 50% decline from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak.
The company’s base case foresees Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by mid-2027 before climbing to approximately $300,000 at the next cycle peak in 2029. Under its bull scenario, the digital asset could hit $200,000 by mid-2027 and surge to $500,000 by 2029. Bernstein maintained its long-term target of about $1 million by 2033 in both cases.
Analysts attributed the reduced drawdown in the current cycle—compared with prior declines of 75% to 90%—to stronger participation from institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers, which provided greater downside support. Bernstein’s forecast is anchored in Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, linked to the network’s halving events that reduce miner rewards approximately every four years.
The firm segments each cycle into four phases—breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation—and estimates Bitcoin’s price potential by comparing it with the marginal cost of production for the least efficient miners. Bernstein assumes the price-to-marginal-cost multiple will mirror prior cycles, projecting a decline from 1.4 times at the $125,000 peak in 2025 to 1.25 times at the projected $300,000 peak in 2029, and about 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033.
The outlook also carries implications for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 840,447 BTC—roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s 21 million coin supply. Bernstein maintained its “Outperform” rating on Strategy but reduced its stock price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and an updated Bitcoin cycle assessment. Strategy’s shares closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4%.
Bernstein suggested a Bitcoin recovery could enable Strategy to resume aggressive purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. The firm also noted that a rebound in Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock to around $100 could further support its capacity to increase Bitcoin holdings. STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday.
Recent analysis from Regime Intelligence highlighted that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may face greater risk from prolonged capital-market disruptions than from a sharp crypto market downturn, potentially threatening its ability to meet roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without liquidating BTC.
