Gold prices for 2030 have been downgraded by Bernstein Research, with the firm now forecasting an average price of $5,600 per ounce, down from its previous estimate of $6,100. The adjustment reflects evolving expectations around interest rates and central bank behavior, particularly as real interest rates rise toward 2.7% from earlier projections of 1.7% in March. Bernstein’s analyst, Bob Brackett, noted that gold’s performance may be influenced by a trend toward higher real rates, a scenario that could persist despite potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the decade.
The shift in monetary policy expectations stems from a shift in the Federal Reserve’s outlook, with Bernstein now anticipating two or three rate hikes by 2027, reversing earlier predictions of one or two cuts at the start of the year. Brackett emphasized that gold’s value could remain resilient as central banks continue diversifying away from the U.S. dollar and other G7 currencies, though large reserve holders such as China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia remain cautious, allocating less than 10% of their reserves to the metal.
The downgrade also reflects broader geopolitical and political uncertainty, including potential changes in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy following the midterm elections, which could further influence gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. Bernstein’s outlook remains bullish on gold’s long-term demand drivers, including inflation hedging and portfolio diversification, but the revised forecast underscores the metal’s sensitivity to shifts in real interest rates and central bank reserve strategies.
Brackett stated that gold could benefit from a gradual rise in real rates, a scenario that aligns with current trends. He also reiterated the firm’s view that central banks are not yet done diversifying their reserves beyond traditional currencies, a trend that could support gold’s price over the coming decade.
