Baird initiated coverage of Brinker International Inc. on Monday with an Outperform rating and a price target of $325, citing the company’s operational turnaround at its Chili’s chain.
The stock last traded at $246.06, near its 52-week high of $253.71, and has gained 64% over the past year. Baird’s target implies a potential upside of roughly 32% from current levels. The firm’s outlook follows a period of strategic improvements at Chili’s, including menu simplification, enhanced execution and hospitality, and a stronger value proposition.
Brinker reported fourth-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $3.07, slightly below the consensus estimate of $3.09. Same-store sales growth at Chili’s reached 5.6%, according to KeyBanc, while InvestingPro assigned the company a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating robust financial health.
Analysts have broadly revised earnings estimates upward, with 14 firms adjusting their projections higher in recent months. BMO Capital maintains a $230 target, while KeyBanc sets its target at $275, UBS at $285, DA Davidson at $260, and BofA Securities at $310 with a buy rating.
Baird’s initiation reflects confidence in Chili’s ability to sustain customer traffic gains, market share expansion, and improved profitability. The firm noted that the brand’s recent performance may benefit from a confluence of factors, including value messaging, advertising, social media attention, and weakened competitors, raising questions about the durability of its gains.
