Aya Gold & Silver forecasts higher earnings on record output

Aya Gold & Silver is poised to release second-quarter earnings following a quarter marked by record silver output, though analysts anticipate the results may be tempered by softer gold prices.

The Vancouver-based miner reported preliminary silver production of 2.1 million ounces in Q2, exceeding its previous guidance and setting a new company record. Gold output, however, fell 5% year-over-year to 18,000 ounces, reflecting lower grades at its Boumadine mine in Morocco. The company has maintained its full-year guidance for gold production at 70,000 to 75,000 ounces and silver at 8.5 to 9 million ounces.

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets and Scotiabank project Aya’s Q2 earnings to benefit from higher silver volumes, though they caution that declining gold prices—down roughly 3% in Q2—could limit overall revenue growth. BMO estimates adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share, up from $0.09 in the same period last year, while Scotiabank forecasts a 15% year-over-year increase in revenue.

Aya’s stock has underperformed the broader mining sector in 2024, declining 12% year-to-date as of Friday’s close, compared with a 5% gain for the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index. The company’s operational improvements at Boumadine and expansion at its Zgounder mine in Morocco have driven production growth, but investors remain focused on cost management amid volatile metal prices.

Earnings are scheduled for release after market close on Thursday, with a conference call scheduled for Friday morning. The results will provide further insight into Aya’s ability to sustain record output while navigating weaker gold pricing conditions.