ATAI Beckley Inc is set to release second-quarter earnings on Monday, marking its final financial report before Eli Lilly’s $2.8 billion acquisition is finalized in the third quarter.
Analysts project a loss of $0.12 per share on revenue of $140,000, following a first-quarter loss of $0.08 per share on $954,000 in revenue. ATAI exceeded first-quarter earnings estimates by 21%, though its stock has remained under pressure amid merger arbitrage dynamics. Over the past 60 days, earnings-per-share estimates have risen 2.37%, though they have held steady over the past week.
Coverage remains neutral, with 14 analysts maintaining a consensus rating on the stock, which trades at $7.42. The mean price target stands at $8.10, implying a 9.8% upside potential.
Eli Lilly’s acquisition, announced in July, values ATAI at $6.75 per share upfront, with up to an additional $1 billion in contingent value rights (CVRs) tied to development milestones. The deal is expected to close within weeks, pending regulatory approvals.
The CVR payouts hinge on key milestones: initiating a Phase 3 trial of VLS-01 within four years, securing U.S. approval and DEA rescheduling of BPL-003 within five years, and achieving the same for VLS-01 within seven years. BPL-003, a DMT-based nasal spray for treatment-resistant depression, recently entered Phase 3 trials with pivotal data expected in early 2029.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Jefferies, and H.C. Wainwright downgraded the stock to Hold in July, citing limited near-term upside due to the pending acquisition. Oppenheimer, however, maintained an Outperform rating, calling the deal a validation of psychedelic medicine’s potential. Eli Lilly has acquired 11 drugmakers this year, reinforcing its aggressive expansion strategy.
