Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030 as structural factors align, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. Speaking on the Trade Secrets podcast, Hayes cited the collapse of the AI market bubble, aggressive monetary expansion and potential U.S. yield curve control as catalysts for Bitcoin’s appreciation. He described Bitcoin’s recent rebound from around $58,000 as the likely bottom of a sustained upward trajectory.
Hayes’ forecast contrasts with skepticism from Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, who argued that Bitcoin’s price trajectory to $1 million by 2030 is "mathematically impossible" given the required capital inflows. Bitcoin has gained 22.15% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Despite his long-term optimism for Bitcoin, Hayes has reduced exposure to Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual exchange. He cited elevated expectations and competitive pressures as reasons to prioritize other opportunities. Hyperliquid’s prospects have been bolstered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated efforts to facilitate its entry into the American market, though Hayes dismissed political influence on crypto prices. "It’s irrelevant," he said, emphasizing the role of monetary authorities over political rhetoric.
Hayes expressed confidence in BitMEX’s orderly shutdown, set for September 23, calling it a strategic exit rather than a forced closure. He attributed the decision to intensifying competition in the crypto exchange sector, where scale advantages favor incumbents like Binance and OKX. "Running a crypto exchange now is really a mug’s game unless you have the scale of a major player," he stated.
For near-term allocations, Hayes named Ethereum his top choice, citing its undervaluation relative to historical peaks and its foundational role in decentralized finance. He suggested Ethereum could deliver 3x to 5x returns "pretty quickly," contrasting it with Hyperliquid’s more limited upside potential. Ethereum remains the largest smart-contract platform by market capitalization but has yet to reclaim its 2021 all-time high.
