Morgan Stanley estimates Apple’s first foldable iPhone could generate about $14 billion in revenue during the December quarter, underscoring the product’s potential as a major revenue driver.
Analyst Erik Woodring anticipates production of roughly 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026, with cumulative output reaching up to 20 million units over the device’s first cycle. Supply constraints, particularly for memory components, are expected to cap near-term volumes despite Apple’s focus on securing adequate component supply.
The foldable iPhone is positioned as the most significant iPhone format change since the iPhone X, according to Woodring. Its launch event, scheduled for next week, will mark a shift in leadership, with new CEO John Ternus set to unveil the device. Apple CEO Tim Cook, who has led product launches for 15 years, will not be the keynote speaker for the first time during this period.
Analysts expect the foldable model to carry a premium exceeding $200 over prior-year models, driven by higher NAND and DRAM memory costs. The device will also feature TSMC’s 2nm process technology, aimed at enhancing on-device artificial intelligence performance. Basic iPhone 18 and iPhone Air 2 models are not expected before the Northern Hemisphere spring, indicating a staggered rollout strategy.
