Evercore ISI has warned that the anticipated public offerings of AI firms Anthropic and OpenAI could prompt mutual‑fund managers to move tax‑loss harvesting forward to the post‑Labor Day period. The strategy would generate liquidity for the mega‑IPOs without resorting to leverage.
Anthropic is targeting a valuation of about $100 billion, while OpenAI aims for roughly $60 billion. Evercore cites the June 12 SpaceX public offering – which raised $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation – as a benchmark for the scale of these transactions.
To identify stocks likely to be sold, Evercore applies a screen to Russell 3000 constituents with market capitalisations above $5 billion that are down more than 10% year‑to‑date, trading within 20% of their annual lows and showing negative three‑month earnings‑per‑share revisions. The following large‑cap equities meet those criteria:
- Tesla (down 21.3% YTD, EPS revisions –10.3%) - IBM (down 20.7% YTD, EPS revisions –1.0%) - American Express (down 11.8% YTD, EPS revisions –0.1%) - McDonald’s (down 16.3% YTD, EPS revisions –0.6%) - Lowe’s (down 15.2% YTD, EPS revisions –1.5%) - Lululemon (down 51.6% YTD, EPS revisions –10.7%) - DraftKings (down 30.3% YTD, EPS revisions –50.1%) - Trade Desk (down 62.0% YTD, EPS revisions –59.7%)
The broader market shows mixed signals: the Nasdaq 100 lagged behind the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, both of which posted record highs in August. Classic bull‑market top indicators – such as an aggressive Federal Reserve rate‑hiking cycle, 10‑year Treasury yields above 5%, an imminent recession, or heightened retail‑investor speculation – are currently absent. S&P 500 earnings surprise ratios remain robust at roughly 23%.
Evercore ISI strategists said, “In a year of more AI, more volatility, more earnings, and more market upside, it should not be a surprise that the major AI names, Anthropic and OpenAI, are thinking about going public.” They added, “It is entirely conceivable that SPCX’s record raise and valuation will no longer stand by year end.”
