American Airlines has lowered its fourth-quarter 2026 capacity growth forecast, citing ongoing demand adjustments across key markets. The carrier now projects domestic capacity to rise 10.1%, down 110 basis points from the prior week. November growth has been cut by 300 basis points, reflecting softer near-term travel trends.
The airline also reduced its Atlantic capacity growth estimate by 140 basis points to 1.8%, while Pacific capacity is now expected to contract 2.9%, a 240-basis-point downward revision. System-wide growth for the quarter has been trimmed to 6.5%, compared with 7.6% the previous week.
The adjustments follow a Bank of America report tracking weekly airline capacity changes, which also highlighted broader industry trends. Delta Air Lines now forecasts system growth of 3.2%, with Atlantic capacity growth reduced by 60 basis points to 4.1%. United Airlines has lowered its domestic growth target by 20 basis points to 9.6%, while its overall system growth stands at 5.7%.
Across the sector, domestic Q4 growth has been reduced by 30 basis points to 3.7%. Alaska Air Group cut its domestic growth by 20 basis points to 3.6%, though it increased Latin America capacity growth by 190 basis points despite a 28.9% year-over-year decline in the region. Frontier Group Holdings reduced its forecast by 150 basis points to 11.3%, while Southwest Airlines raised its Q4 growth by 20 basis points to 3.5%, with Latin America capacity growth increasing by 30 basis points to 12.6%.
Travel demand indicators remain mixed. TSA seven-day passenger throughput through August 23 was down 3.7% year-over-year, a slight deterioration from the prior week’s 3.0% decline.
