UBS shares fell as much as 4.7 percent on Tuesday to 41.31 francs, retreating to levels last seen in early July, as cautious signals from U.S. bank executives weighed on the sector. The Swiss lender's stock had already lost nearly 3 percent on Monday.
The broader market was soft, with the SMI down roughly 0.9 percent at 13,756 points. European bank peers also came under pressure: BNP Paribas and UniCredit shares each declined more than 2.2 percent.
The trigger was a comment by Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on Monday at a Barclays conference. Moynihan said the bank expected "relatively stable" trading revenues in the third quarter compared with the year-earlier period — a signal that the Wall Street trading rally of the first half may be pausing. He also projected investment banking fees of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, below the roughly $2 billion analysts had expected. Bank of America shares dropped as much as 6 percent on Monday following the remarks.
Investors are now turning the same concern toward UBS, whose trading revenues have been among the strongest in Europe. The Swiss bank posted $6.3 billion in trading revenues in the first half, helping European investment banks reach a 10-year high of $32 billion for the period, alongside Barclays, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas.
The trading segment has been a particular strength for UBS. While European banks' collective share of the global trading market has eroded from nearly 40 percent nine years ago to 25 percent in the second quarter of 2026, UBS has expanded its own share by 0.6 percentage points since 2021 to 4.8 percent — one of the largest gains among major banks.
The prospect of a Q3 plateau now carries extra weight because analyst estimates have been revised sharply upward. The consensus for UBS's full-year 2026 trading revenues stands at $11 billion. In equity trading specifically, 2026 estimates have been raised by 35 percent to more than $6.3 billion, the largest upward revision among European lenders. If the cooling in U.S. trading activity filters through to UBS's books, those targets could come under pressure.
