GSK Chief Financial Officer Julie Brown spoke at the Bernstein 23rd Annual Pan-European Strategic Decisions Conference, outlining the company's accelerated clinical pipeline, major M&A commitments, and long-range financial guidance as the pharmaceutical giant navigates the coming wave of patent expiries.
Brown confirmed that GSK announced a cost-saving program in July 2024 targeting GBP 1.9 billion in savings, with the majority of those funds earmarked for reinvestment into its pipeline, particularly oncology. Annual Phase III trial starts have risen to 20 in 2024, up from roughly 10 to 11 previously, covering seven major assets across 18 indications, with oncology accounting for 11 of those indications.
The company's GBP 10 billion acquisition of Nuvalent remains central to its strategy. The deal, reported at approximately $10 billion gross or about GBP 7 billion net of cash, brings Neladalkib and Zidesamtinib into GSK's portfolio. "We committed as part of the Nuvalent deal that it is immediately sales accretive because the assets are launching now," Brown said. "It is operating profit accretive next year. It is EPS accretive in 2029." Brown also noted that Zidesamtinib received U.S. FDA approval in July 2024, roughly two months ahead of its target PDUFA date, while Neladalkib faces its PDUFA in November 2024.
Financially, GSK guided for more than GBP 40 billion in sales by 2031, with consensus expectations moving up to approximately GBP 37 billion from GBP 33 billion previously. Consensus margin expectations through the patent expiry window improved to 30%–31%, up from 25%. Leverage stands at just under 2 times net debt to EBITDA, and gross profit margin is 73.49%. Revenue growth over the last twelve months is approximately 5%.
Shingrix, the shingles vaccine, generated about GBP 1 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2024 and has been categorized as a greater-than-GBP-4-billion asset in long-term guidance. U.S. penetration sits at around 45%, with expected annual growth of 2 to 4 percentage points, while the top 12 rest-of-world markets stand at 12% penetration. Vaccine efficacy is approximately 80%, with longevity lasting six to 11 years, the majority falling in the eight-to-11-year range. Observational data suggests a possible 30% to 40% reduction in cardiovascular event risk (MACE).
In respiratory, December 2023 saw U.S. approval for Exdensur (depemokimab) in asthma, with clinical data showing a 72% reduction in exacerbations resulting in hospitalization. Brown noted European growth in Shingrix was double-digit in the first half of 2024.
GSK's HIV franchise continues a shift toward long-acting injectables. More than 30% of the company's U.S. HIV business has moved from oral tablets to injectable formulations, and the SOLAR study found 90% of patients prefer long-acting injectables over daily oral tablets. The treatment franchise covers approximately 90% of the market. A four-month injectable version is expected to have its final readout in 2027, with a six-month injectable launch anticipated for prevention in the same year; a four-month treatment version is targeted for launch in 2028. The dolutegravir patent expiry window begins in 2028, with 2029 cited as a core impact year in the U.S., though patent estate applications aim to extend protection on Cabenuva to 2035 and beyond.
In hepatitis B, Bepirovirsen shows 19% of patients potentially achieving a functional cure after six months of therapy, with 50% seeing lower surface antigen levels. The U.S., China, and Japan represent roughly three-quarters of the business potential.
Additional deals, including acquisitions of IDRx and Elsie, were valued in the range of GBP 1 billion to GBP 2 billion each. Brown emphasized that the pharmaceutical industry operates on long timelines: "It takes a while in pharma... Things don't happen overnight."
